The Greater Depression and The Newest Deal

The news that the current recession the United States is in actually started in 2007 was bitter-sweet. On the sweet side, it alleviated some people's fears that this debacle was barely starting, and that this would be a storm that would linger well into next year. It gave some investors hope, and so they, with that hope as currency, bought stocks thinking they were getting a bargain now, and sunnier skies later. The bitter side, however, overrides any of the sweet aftertaste.

The recession is already 12 months-long and with no sign it will end soon. If it continues into, at the very least, the first and second quarter of 2009, as many predict it will, it will have been the longest recession ever. The longest recession after our current one is the pair of ebbs the economy weathered in the late 70's, early 80's., which were 16 months-long. Come April, we will be making history.

The government reported a 6.7% jobless rate today, after over 500,000 jobs were shred in the month of November, increasing the Sept-Oct-Nov job deficit to over 1.9 million, and taking our underemployment rate (where people who want to work full-time can only find part-time work) from October 8% to November's 12.5%. We are gonna party like its 1929.

With great crisis come great opportunities. Obama's team are wringing their hands, thinking of ways to use the $500 billion (or more) stimulus package they plan to send Congress as soon as they warm up their White House desks. One of the most praised proposals is to use nearly half of it on infrastructure, such as highway renovation, electric grid refinement, and water system upgrades, among others. This would effectively create 2 milion federally financed jobs.

Obama is also focusing on using some of that money on propping up a currently private-sector industry: green energy. Either ethanol, biodisel, wind, solar, or new-kle-ur, an investment in sustainable energy will again kill (or revive, in this case) two birds with one stone: create federally financed jobs, and promote long-term economic stability. There's a reason why Obama is being compared to FDR in magazine covers, pundit's columns, and in the minds of beleaguered Americans uncertain about their futures. Obama may be from the land of Lincoln, but he is standing on Franklin's turf.

Most economists will minize the importance of a president's proposals in time of economic crisis. Directly, they do little to influence the health of the economy. Most will admit, however, that what a president does, or doesn't do, can help it recover or send it to the emergency room later on. Clinton knew not to meddle with a good thing; Bush was not so wise. Obama will now have to face a situation that pits him against a momentous decline with few tools to fix it.

If Obama wants to make his mark, next to Lincoln, FDR, and Reagan, he has an opportunity. He has been given a crisis, and with that crisis he can become great rather than good enough.

lhp

The Change that comes with an Obama Presidency

The dust is settling, the polls are dimming, and the election junkies are going through withdrawals--we are, believe me.  What to do with the ashes of this election and the seeds of the upcoming Obama presidency?  What else, but speculate!

The election of Barack Obama is not limited to a change of party in power.  This is almost an afterthought, since Barack never really embodied a Democratic mantra as much as he did a Liberal tag.  Neither ever delineated his appeal or approach.  As a founding member of pragmatic progressivism, President-elect Obama has an opportunity to sit on a throne brimmed with unprecedented power, supported by new momentous alliances, and responding to a hunger for reform and innovation not seen since 1932.

Barack Obama changed the way people voted during a time of crisis.  For the first time ever, a new president from a party that was not the incumbent's will assume office during a time of war.  Not since FDR won has a president from a non-incumbent party triumphed in a time of financial crisis with such a astounding political mandate. 

A Southern Strategy, where some Southern appeal was needed by a Democratic presidential candidate in order to be competitive, is now nothing more than a monument to the past 40 years.  Barack won three Southern states, while losing the rest by a larger margin than Kerry lost in 2004.  And still he obtained a technical landslide in the popular vote, and a sweeping electoral vote count.  No longer is an intellectual, an unaccented, or a man of non-Southern roots (vis a vis Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton) an immediate underdog in a contest with the fully Southernized Republican party.

Barack changed demographic alliances (obtaining a higher percentage of the while male vote of than any Democratic candidate in decades), electoral maps (turning Red States into Swing States, and Swing States into Blue States), and the qualifications of a candidate (no longer do they have to be WASPs, or Washington fixtures, or of a wealthy upbringing).  Barack, before even washing his hand to take the oath on the Bible, has changed American politics forever.

With his diverse support base and an endorsement by the people that stretches evenly throughout the nation, Barack is entering his term as the most powerful president ever.  One thing Barack has to thank George Bush for (not many to count, I am sure) is the expansion of presidential powers he has bequeathed him thanks to his crony lawyers and his bossy nature toward Congress.  Sheaves of legal arguments ranging from torture to military courts to international agreements produced by Bush loyalists are now the custody of Barack Obama.  A bullied Congress, lurching at the beck and call of the President, is now the property of Barack Obama.  If Barack learns how to wield the sword, he will have the best chances of slaying the mightiest of dragons. 

Barack has power, a political mandate, and the urgency a crisis and war provide to use at his disposal.  He can either become a run of the mill president who muddles through crises and makes some modest changes to our politics and policy, like Nixon or Carter, vulnerable to having his weak legacy contested by the following generations.  Or he can flex his will and skill and attempt greatness, and possibly achieve it just like Franklin Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln, or Ronald Reagan did.  Their legacies were strong went they left office, and have become a thing of veneration ever since by those who agree and disagree with them.  Barack already has a generation rapt and ready to chip in.  JFK had the same problem/opportunity.  If he takes note (which I am sure he has, as the lover of history that he is), Obama will wield that double-edged sword with skill.  He can change the horizon, as he has changed our expectations, but only if he makes change a virtue and not just a slogan.

lhp

Obama's Win: A Dream, Within Reach

This is just too beautiful to describe in words.

lhp

Purple USA

Obama was on to something.  Notice how the United States has embraced the blue and the purple.  He has engineered a tectonic shift in American politics.

lhp

Mr. President

I am still having trouble assessing the weight and importance of this moment.  I am just happy.

lhp

Key Things to Look For Tonight

It's election day. I know I am not the only one with their stomach tied three knots and a half. But I am sane enough (at the moment) to give my take on what are some of the keys things to look out for as the results roll in tonight. So lets look at the trees, AND the forest:

• Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana--oh my!: These may be the earliest predictors of what type of election this will be: a landslide, a cliff-hanger, or a reasonable rout. If Obama wins Virginia, expect at the very least, at reasonable spanking of McCain; this goes the same if he manages to win Indiana. If he wins North Carolina, then expect a landslide of at least 8 pts in the popular vote, and 100 electoral votes, against McCain. However, if Obama loses all three, then we may be in for the long-haul.
• State of Brotherly Love: McCain is betting the farm on this state...that and Sarah Palin's wardrobe. If he wins PA, his campaign will feel reinvigorated, and he will be as spry as a spring chicken.
• Men, Men, Men: How will Obama do with the male vote? Especially, white men? A big lead means a major shift in electoral demographics that have been in place since LBJ.
• Turnout: So much is hanging on how many first-time, young, African-American and independent voters come out to vote. All of these groups are typically Obama supporters, so a large turnout from them means a lot of support for Obama. In Indiana, for example, Lake County, where the predominantly African-American city of Gary is located, is still very within Obama's reach if that county votes in high numbers.
• What about a landslide? A popular vote and an electoral vote landslide is a possibility for Obama. If these happens, this will be the first time since Ronald Reagan in 1980 that a such a landslide has occurred, without an incumbent president in the race.

Stay tuned. I sure will.

lhp

My Journey With Barack Obama

Less than 24hrs from now, a new page in history will be written. If either McCain or Obama win, the Bush presidency will be writing its final paragraphs, and the new president will try to right the wrongs of its legacy. In less than 24hrs, the whirlwind election year(s) will come to a close, and the victor will hopefully raise up the energies of those of us who are a little drained from this electoral marathon.

It was a year and a couple of months ago when I first signed up to be a part of this election. Back in August of 2007, I signed up to help Barack's longshot campaign surge against the Clinton juggernaut. At that point, I knew Barack fairly well. I knew he was not a liberal diety, like Kucinich; he was not a populist warrior, like Edwards; and he was not a veteran of Washington powerplays, like Hillary.

I was involved in the Kerry campaign, but for peculiar reasons. In 2004, Kerry ran away with the Democratic nomination, not because he was the best, most liked, or coolest candidate. He won because he was the luckiest. And after that, he grew in popularity in large part because he was "not Bush". I signed up to help him out mosty out of that negative trait: he was not the guy currently in office. I campaigned for him out of my hate for the Bush years and the wreck it was making out my country. I know I am not the only one who was fueled by that passion when supporting Kerry. Being not Bush took Kerry so far. As Truman once said: given the choice between a real Republican and a fake one, people will go for the real one. Kerry failed to make the case he was neither. When I signed up to Barack's campaign, my motives were not out of hate, at all. He was unique, and he was inspiring. I can't remember the last time I heard myself or anyone say that about anyone, much less a politician.

I first heard of Barack shortly before the 2004 Democratic Convention, when I heard from friends in Illinois about this skinny black dude who was really smart and likable. Then I heard his speech, loved it, saw Kerry lose, felt depressed for awhile, and forgot about this Barack fellow.

As part of my recuperation process, I started looking forward to 2008. 4 more years and he is out of here, I kept telling myself in 2004. I remembered the guy who won a Senate seat in Illinois and was a fresh new face in Washington--for more than the fact that he was the only black Senator in the whole damn place. I started doing research on him. And kept reading about him. And on and on.

Barack. What a funny name, I remember thinking. Too bad he probably will wont run until 2012, I thought. GOD! That is so long from now. Deep down, I hoped he would run in 2008, but feared that his slim Washington experience (a good and bad thing all at once) would hurt his chances of going against the likes of Hillary, or Al, or John, or other party elders.

But he did. And I followed. Carefully at first. I knew I disagreed with him on a few issues (death penalty, some immigration policies), but heard him and liked what I heard. His views have always been pragmatic, following no particular doctrine, and never trying to make one of his own. As I heard him, campaigned for him, and he campaigned for himself, I found him to be very human. He avoided pitching anything like a salesman with catchy soundbites and easy to digest answers. He took his time and when you saw him talk you knew he was always thinking. If I had to summarize why I found him so compelling, it would be because I saw his insatiable curiosity and I saw him evolve everyday. Like me, he expected the best of outcomes, but prepared for all the others.

Despite my faith in him as a person and as a candidate, I was a sober-enough thinker to understand the obstacles he was up against, even back then during the politica honey-moon . The first was a Hillary campaign that seemed to have no holes, no weakpoints, and no lack of ambition. Soon enough, this machine became rusty, tired, and outmaneuvered by the powerful flexibility of the Obama campaign. Barack, having assembled an amazing political team, stood his ground, maintained his message, and never returned the low punches Hillary threw. She wanted a dog fight, he wanted a brutally honest comparison. Keeping his cool like he always has, Barack irritated, and eventually disrupted, the Hillary campaign.

The unrelenting sense of 'cool' Barack exudes has torn down more than one political heavyweight. First Hillary, and along with her, Bill, then the punditry that fenced his campaign away from blue-collar and women voters, and then, hopefully, if tomorrow turns out to be a culmination of a two-year buildup, McCain and the old Right. McCain's ire and Palin's snarky divisiveness, have been unable to dent Barack's cool. It is almost impossible to take down an opponent that never really lets you see him sweat. Like Joe DiMaggio used to say, never show them the butterflies.

As Barack goes, so will his movement. They say there is no second-act in politics, and that may be true--if you keep acting in a political theater. Barack has a movement behind him the likes of Martin Luther King and Cesar Chavez. People are mobilized and ready for involvement. He may not run again, but his influence in American politics will not fade away soon. The day I signed up to be a volunteer coordinator for his campaign over a year ago, I remember calling everyone I knew and telling them to meet with me to talk about Barack. Most of them sympathized with me, but let me know Hillary was the obvious choice, Barack had no chance. I pushed on and kept the faith. As Hillary pushed, and McCain growled, and Palin bullied, I believed more and more in Barack by how he responded, by taking the high-road. Now, at the very least, people I know respect Barack.

He is not flawless. He is, in the end, a politician, and he knows you must flex muscle in order to get gains. He is apt at finding people that help make him a better candidate, and hopefully a more skillfull executive. He has flaws, like his delayed decision-making, his thickening, but still fairly thin skin, and his reserved character. He can empathize with you, but he can make it very hard for you to do the same for him. He comes off as emotionally detached, aloof of his own pains and unwilling to show you the sweat. He is more of a general than a brother-in-arms. He wont cross the street to greet you, but he will wait for you to come to him. He may, in the end, be a tad cocky. At the core, however, he stays the same. It is this value system and character that makes his stand out.

At recent Barack rallies, when he mentions McCain or Palin, or their tried an failed policies of the past, people boo. Unlike the hateful heckling that has gone on in McCain/Palin rallies, where people yell "Terrorist" and "Kill Him" when Barack's name is mentioned, and neither McCain or Palin do anything to reprimand them, Barack does. Shushing the boos, he reminds his supporters what should substitute rancor: civic duty.

"You don't need to boo; you just need to vote"

This is why I still have faith in Barack.

lhp

Who Will Win Which States?

With less than a week away from the election, and the weekend being the blackhole that it is, this is a prime time to make your election bets. Unless Obama slaps a baby on television, or McCain cures cancer over the weekend, the dynamics of the election will be unchanged from now until Nov. 4th. So lets get on to predicticatin'.

• The West Coast will be all Obama's. The East Coast as south as Virginia will be all Obama.
  I don't see North Carolina going for Obama unless a higher than expected young voter turnout is seen--but it would have to be incredibly high.
• Florida, much to the chagrin of Obama, Biden, and the Clinton's hardwork, will be McCain's. The argument there has rested on the hands of older jewish voters and Cubans. I don't see those two groups picking Obama over McCain at this time, but it will be closer than most think.
• Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada will all go to Obama, making tremendous inroads into Red territory. Virginia was quickly seen as a potential newcomer to the Democratic column soon after Obama did so well in its exurbs and high-tech ally, but these three Red states have been inching toward Obama throughout the summer, and now remain solidly on his side.
• Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the working-class, manufacturing belt, will all go to Obama. Michigan and Ohio will probably show the widest margin of victory, with Pennsylvania being closer than expected due to Murtha's dumbass remarks and McCain's persistent presence there.
• Minnesotta will go to McCain, but only barely, and because of the presence his Convention, and the unveiling of the Palin pitbull that stills linger in the cold, pragmatic air.
• Iowa will turn Blue, and Missouri will be close enough to be considered a gimme-state come 2012.
  
• Indiana will go to McCain, and by wider margins than in other states in the region.

In the end, I believe Obama will win the popular vote, around 56% of it, and claim 301 electoral votes to McCain's 237. If a state like Florida, or Indiana tips toward the Obama column, this will be a tremendous landslide. If it ends up coming out as I predict, Obama will have a mandate for a first term president unheard of since Ronald Reagan in 1980. No wonder Obama has admiration for Reagan transformative presence in history.

lhp

We Can Still Win This, By Daryl Cagle

lhp

McCain's Obit Too Soon?

When you have neo-nazis trying to kill you, you know you are causing a stir. A disrupted Obama assassination attempt is just another drop in the flood of assumptions that he will win come November 4th.

Will he? I hope so--but I cannot say with certainty. Polling shows him ahead in almost all swing states, a handful of previously certified Red states, and nationwide by a comfortable (and sometimes surprisingly wide) margin. McCain has no more than a couple chances to turn this thing around, but even then he will be trying to stop a hurricane with some heavy puffing. Obama is poised to become the next president of the United States--maybe.

An Obama victory is what pollsters and pundits assumed many times over during the primaries, only to be slapped back by Hillary's never (neeeeeever) say die attitude. The margin of victory in most states was either slimmer than expected, suprisingly off, or wrong all over in favor of Hillary. Polling this year has not been consistently proven.

This is not to take back from Obama's pristine campaign. Try to think of a handful of mismanagements, gaffes, or bone-headed decisions made by his campaign. Hard to do so. Try to do the same with McCain, and you have just a handful coming from Palin in the last month.

The possibility that McCain is bound to lose in a landslide is indeed a possibility. It is even a probablitiy. But McCain is of the Hillary ilk. He fights his best when cornered, when he has nothing else to fight for. Do not be surprised if he manages to land a few roundhouse kicks in the next 8 days.

An Obama presidency is already being taken as a given, and analyzed before it even begins. This celebrity adoration has followed Obama for the last 4 years, but it has never truly phased him. This is one of the reasons the celebrity attack line didn't stick; he might know he is a celebrity, but he is able to sober-up his message enough to bore you to death and make those fickle independents think he is dull enough to be good.

McCain has never been able to brush off many of his obstacles. He is still an untrusted figure within his party, and not because of his maverickness, but because of his persona. He has never truly convinced his followers that he is the best man for the job--proof being that he only excited his campaign after picking a right-wing hockey mom . He has even caused some of the most fervent GOP supporters to beg him to throw a hail-mary, not trusting his campaign's strategies. McCain has put himself in a position George Bush never did: he has everyone, including his own party, doubting his competence as president.

Is it too early to take McCain out of this race? No. Is he likely to win? No. Does this mean Obama will lose? Doesn't matter. McCain will not soon disappear.

lhp

Latin America Dismissed

It is easy to forget anything that isn't Obama, McCain, Palin, Bush, Afghanistan or economy-related. The focus has been kept on the most pressing, immediate storylines and threats. However, this monomania has put us in binds before (Iraq, dismissing Aghanistan; trade deficit and unemployment, looking away from the mortgage debacle; Saddam over Osama; and Palin over every other possible option). In the case of foreign policy, the inability of our President and national conversation to multi-task efficiently between equally important topics has left us jumping from one to the other, leaving behind a pile of unaccomplished missions and torn alliances.

This could soon be the case with Latin America. As far back as the Monroe Doctrine, the United States has treated Latin America like its little brother, ready to be taught and tussled with when we deemed it necessary. "Our backyard" has a long history of American interference, for the better (the 1994 bailout of Mexico amidst a financial crisis) or for the worse (the 1954 coup of Guatemala's Jacobo Arbenz because of the financial interests of United Fruit and our government officials' stake in the company). Like the bruised little brother, Latin America has gotten used to the heavy hand of American surveillance.

These days, it looks like it needs it. The complexities of Latin American continue to grow, as do its conflicts and turbulence. In Mexico, drug wars are pitting narco-dealers against cops, cops against the military, and civilians against the government. The bloody headlines involve the latest "ajuste de cuentas" (settling debts between drug cartels) on a daily basis. In Venezuela, Hugo Chavez rules with half of the country against him, and half of the country in devotion to him. The rise in oil prices has given him unprecented power, and he is wielding that power to tarnish the American image and begin to build an Anti-American coalition of Latin American nations. In Colombia, President Alvaro Uribe is consistently being linked to far-right paramilitaries that are entrenched in a violent war with far-left revolutionaries (the FARC), jeopardizing his legitimacy to rule and killing innocent civilians in the meanwhile. Across the region, the recent financial meltdown has made things worse, laying off millions, and leaving a part of the world that has disliked George Bush's patronizing presence from the moment he set foot on their land with the most bitter of after tastes.

The American government, however, has decided to practice a hands-off approach for the first time in a long time. It has mostly stayed out of the way of Latin American trainwrecks, and only decides to intervene when its own honor (barking back at Chavez) is at stake.

This will bite them soon enough.

The other half of America may not be at the same level of turmoil as the Middle East or West Africa, but it is still our neighbor. The repercussions of an ambivalence toward their tumultous reality will be felt much quicker than coming from anywhere else. Our decision to take a quick fix approach to the Mexican economy's troubles in the 60's by introducing the 'braceros' program did very little to help Mexico, and instead was partly to blame for the increasing stream of undocumented workers that have come to the US ever since. Our ambivalence toward Argentina's financial mismanagement led to a crisis they are barely getting out of, one that many Argentinians feel is as much the US's fault as their own government's. These are only a few examples of what American monomania has produced. The inability to look at issues in a more comprehensive manner has made our future that much more vulnerable.

America has many disgruntled customers, some of which have threatened the security of the country. Latin America is not one of those. But the constant brush off they have put up with over the last 8-10 years has made them suspicious of America, the big brother. Little brother is tired of being pushed around and paid attention to only when big brother has no one else with who to yell at. Soon enough, little brother will grow and start fighting back.

lhp

Terry Tates Tackles Palin

'nuff said:

lhp

Obama Surges with 14-point lead

The newest CBS poll:

Obama holds a more than 20-point edge when it comes to understanding voters' needs and problems, with 64 percent saying Obama does and 43 percent saying McCain does. 

The Republican nominee does hold a clear advantage on being seen as prepared to be president, as he has throughout the campaign. That measure does not appear to be boosting his support, however, perhaps because while 64 percent say McCain is prepared for the job, more than half say Obama is as well.

According to the poll, the lead has surged because of the massive swing of independent voters moving into Obama's column.  The latest set of attacks by the McCain/Palin beast has produced a nasty after taste in undecided voters' mouths.

McCain might come off two ways tomorrow at the debate in spite of this new set of news.  He may either come off as a fiery lasher with nothing left to lose, or as a defeated old pol with nowhere left to go.  I cannot see a scenario where McCain would dominate the debate with an eloquent, swift rhetorical victory.  He just doesn't have that in him at this point, especially it being on the economy.

To Obama, I say, be cautious of the cornered beast.

lhp

Hanging Up The Future

By definition, a conservative is a reactionary, a person that harkens back rather than embrace forth.  Turning back to look at history is necessary, but when it is used as the only guide for ideology, policy, and personality, it creates, as Marx called it, a "nightmare on the brains of the living." 

America is a young nation, by comparative standards.  As a young political entity it is still maturing.  Looking back to its history is looking at immaturity, youthful recklessness, and mistakes we have (overall) tried to learn from.  Some still linger, and they are not static.  They transform, they adapt.  Such as racism.

McCain and Palin have done what many Obama supporters feared once Obama declared his candidacy: The election will be a referendum on our historical racial struggles.  If he loses or, God forbid, he wins but is denied the office by a bullet, it would be another nail in the coffin, further proof that all our so-called success in race relations has been a farce.  Recent events have hinted to the unsettling truth that racism in America has not disappeared but transformed into a creeping beast.  Events such as Katrina, Jenna 6, xenophobia against the predominantly Latino immigrants, post 9/11 Arab fear, and the unnerving racial tinge of the Clinton's attacks that turned off the African-Community, a stalwart Clinton block, are proof we still have ways to go.

The Senator from Arizona and The Governor from Alaska have created a new beast at their rallies and in their rhetoric.  They have let loose a dog that they never really understood, and much less controlled.  "Kill Him!", "Terrorist!", "Off with his head!", "Traitor!", are now the battle cries from supporters that shape their rallies.  Their continued attacks on Obama's "terrorist" associations, their continued insinuation that Obama is not a "proud American" (maybe not an American at all), their furious attempt to make Obama a man shaped by his tacit, barely existent associations with former enemies of the state, are not only disgraceful, they are murderous.

Obama is at a point not many thought he would be less than a month away from Election Day.  He is leading the polls against a decorated war hero and a engrossing female politician nationally and in critical swing states.  He is extending his lead as each day goes by.  Save a disastrous gaffe or a momentous swing in McCain's direction, he is a step away from the White House.  This is what makes things scarier.  McCain, Palin, and all those who love their cause or fear Obama's person are now in a corner.  As Lao Tzu noted, "Indeed be fearful of the enemy who is cornered with no way out".

Palin transformation into an incendiary figure is yet another surprise in this dramatic election.  Palin has become The Joker of this political season, lending a cheery, innocent facade to a mean-spirited, hateful interior.  If Palin is doing all this to prepare for her own bid in 2012, she is doing a masterful job.  Her support has grown from the sparsely populated state of Alaska to a coast-to-coast fanbase that would make Reagan proud.  However, her base is predominantly is made up of the worst kind of conservative: the scorned reactionary.  They have been wronged, either by the government, minorities, or even McCain-type of politicians, and now they want a take-over.  Palin is helming a movement much like Obama is, but hers is looking for regress, not progress; her movement is looking to go upstream, back through history, not to embrace the future.  

Part of that history includes some shameful moments.  Much of that shame is being recycled this year and thrown against Obama.  McCain and Palin are indeed true conservatives, but only in the fact they resent the future.  With cries from their riled up supporters to kill "that one", one cannot help but fear they may not be bluffing.  They might end up being successful in hanging up the future.  

lhp

Sarah Palin's Troopergate Intesifies

The AP reports:

ANCHORAGE (AP) — Seven Alaska state employees have reversed course and agreed to testify in an abuse-of-power investigation against Gov. Sarah Palin.

Ms. Palin, the Republican nominee for vice president, is the focus of a legislative inquiry into whether she abused her office by firing the public safety commissioner, Walt Monegan. Mr. Monegan says he was dismissed because he would not fire the governor’s former brother-in-law.

Lawmakers subpoenaed seven state employees to testify in the inquiry, but they challenged those subpoenas. A judge rejected that challenge last week. Because of that ruling, the Alaska attorney general, Talis Colberg, says, the employees have decided to testify.

There has been talk that this case may be decided before election day. This could end up tipping things over.

lhp

The VP Debate Verdict: But She's So Adorable!

Two things could be ascertained about the characters involved in last night's debate:

• Sarah Palin's got IT. Not sure what IT is, or what IT means, but IT annoys the hell out of me...but I can see how IT appeals to middle-America voters. IT is all about "you betchas" and adorable pronounciations of "washington" and "alaska". IT is all about connecting with your inner-hockey mom (because that is such a popular sport in the mainland), and IT is all about being fiesty and cutesy at the same time.
• Biden is good. Damn good. He even surprised me. He was possibly the best at constructing an argument attractive to the undecided voter out of the two. His grasp of the facts, his succinct arguments, and clear debating style made him stand out and turn this into a best-case scenario. He was calm, and even a little sentimental. I believe, he had a better performance than Obama did last Friday.

Now, if you need to hear these two points in different ways from an orgy of commentary, please, be my guest:

• NYTimes: Palin did very well, but not well enough to help McCain keep this ship afloat.
• WSJ: Palin held her own; Biden was aggressive in attacking McCain, not Palin.
• Washington Post: Debate will help Palin for now, but her vagueness raises questions.
• AP: Palin's low expectations helped Palin. Biden's strong performance kept momentum on Obama's side.

lhp

The Problem with Being in Charge

Wise words often came out of Jedi Knights. One I rhetorical question voters in 2008 should heed to is one Obi-Wan offered us a long, long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away: “Who is the greater fool? The fool, or the fool who follows the fool?”

This is a time to be judicious. This election is not all about change. It is about who will bring the change we need, the good change. It is not a battle between change agents, Obama and McCain, but between a change agent, Obama, and an extension of the current norm, a referendum on the Bush administration, McCain.

Why should voters see it this way, and not be led by ‘fools’ telling them otherwise? Senator McCain continually claims that he is a ‘maverick’, a rebel within his party, and would not win a Miss Congeniality vote in the senate. But his record voting by party lines is too long to dismiss, and his partisan worldview is too ingrained in him to set aside. Over 90% of Bush’s policies have been accepted with an Aye vote by McCain; he has only disagree with the president and the GOP at large when it favored his immediate constituency, Arizona, more than it favored his party or country. Immigration, environmental issues, pork-barrel spending, these are all issues that are favored in Arizona, leading McCain to vote for them in order to keep his job, but even then, he has flip-flopped when pressure from his party been too much to bare.

He was pro-choice, now he is pro-life; he was for renewable energy, now he is for offshore drilling; he was for immigration reform, now he is for militant border security; he was against pork-barrel spending, now he added to his ticket a governor with one of the worst pork-barrel spending records in the country; he was a straight-forward politician who was the victim of shameful, disparaging, and untrue negative ads, now he has become George W’s 2000 campaign in worse ways.

As far as his record and priorities are concerned, John McCain is as much a Republican as George W Bush, Trent Lott, and Newt Ginrich. He has always been Red, but teased with being Purple. With Sarah Palin, he is not just Red, but beet Red.

The problem with being in charge, as the Republicans have been for 14 years in Congress, 7 years in the Supreme Court, and the last 8 years in the Oval Office, is that whenever a set of problems as we have seen during the last week, month, year, dominate the forefront, then they engulf those who created them. They bite the hand that fed them. The disastrous situation of the economy, foreign policy, environment, and partisanship, are not creatures of serendipity, but your own. They are you and you are them. And you, Senator McCain, are part of them.

So when Senator McCain, or Sarah Palin, or any other Republican with a microphone in their face, start to talk about ‘change,’ or ‘reform,’ or ‘fixing Washington,’ or blame Obama, then they are living in the ridiculous. It is as if I borrowed my dad’s car, wrecked it because I was drinking, and then blamed the guy on the sidewalk who saw me crash into the tree.

You, Senator McCain, ARE the Washington you want fixing; you ARE what we need to change; you ARE to blame. How will you fix something when you embody the problem and just won’t leave?

This is not an election between two Jedi Knights. It is not between Obi-Wan and Yoda. It is between Luke and Senator Palpatine. And, yes, Senator McCain, you are the former.

lhp

Let's Debate the Debate!

Photo courtesy of the Washington Post
As true as that the sun will rise, the post-debate debate will do so also.  Who won? Who looked presidential? Who looked awkward? Who had the best one-liner?

There is no shortage of commentary on who was the boss Friday night.  So, in order to fill the trough anymore, here are some of the best links I have found that comment on the debate and the reception of it afterwards.

• Dick Morris begrudgingly gives it to Obama.
• Thinkprogress.org:"ABC's Charlie Gibson and PBS's David Brooks and Marks Shields note that McCain never looked at Obama during the debate."
• CBS Instant Poll gives a slight edge to Obama overall, but a slight edge to McCain on Iraq.
• CNN gives debate to Obama.
• Run of the entire mill reviews.

Overall, my feeling in two sentences would be: Obama stayed cool, comfortable, and fired up at times.  McCain went for the jugular and the heartstrings, staying feisty and aggressive throughout.  A draw, with a slight edge to Obama because of the better aftertaste his performance left everyone.

lhp

• Fox News runs 4 pro-McCain debate stories, one slyly ridiculing Obama, and a non-story.

Bailout Approved, No Excuse Left for McCain

According to CNN.com, the gargantuan bailout that has a popularity rating lower than Bush's, has been approved.

What will McCain say now? He had claimed that at this time of 'crisis', he needed to suspend his campaign and postpone the first presidential debate this Friday, in order to rush back to Washington and save our economy! Thank you SuperMcCain!

Two possibilities:

• This was exactly what he wanted. He is a long-term Senator and has many back-alley connections with everyone in Washington. He might have already known that the bill would have been passed today as early as right before he decided to suspend his campaign. Knowing this, he called off the campaign, hoping to draw attention, surprise, and, hopefully, a sense of admiration from the American public, who would now see him as this selfless political creature (oh what a thing!). Today, the bill is passed, conincidentally right after McCain returned to Washington in his cape and tighties, and TADA! McCain and Co. will casually lay praise on themselves. This could have never been done if he weren't there to save the day!
• He has been dazed and confused since the economic disaster filled the headlines. Rattled again, he pulled a gambit like he did when he chose Sarah Palin after being scared by the successful Democratic National Convention. He suspended his campaign, thinking that would at least give him some much needed press attention, and hope Obama would bite. He didn't. He actually came out with great rebuttals ("A president should be accustomed to taking care of more than one thing at once"), and maitained a firm on keeping the debate schedule as is. Now that the deal has been done, he will go back to the debate podium, like a little rascal that got caught with spray paint on his hands, and do the deed.

Whatever the case, the debates should be back on schedule. That is, of course, unless McCain throws yet another Hail Mary.

lhp

Letterman Drubs McCain's Campaign Suspension

lhp

Palin, Deer In Headlights, Keeps Mouth Tight

From Politico.com:

Palin gets question, looks to McCain, demurs

This is what happens when campaigns let reporters into photo ops. They get all uppity and ask questions.

From the pool report account of what happened after McCain and Palin's meeting with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvilli and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko:

McCain then looked around the room and gestured as if to welcome questions. The AP reporter shouted a question at Gov. Palin (“Governor, what have you learned from your meetings?”) but McCain aide Brooke Buchanan intervened and shepherded everybody out of the room.

Palin looked surprised, leaned over to McCain and asked him a question, to which your pooler thinks he shook his head as if to say “No.”

lhp

The Most Important Debate This Year

Both candidates had their share of a grueling debate schedule this year.  McCain clocked in around 20, while Obama had over 26.  You would think they are both tired of talking.

Ha.  These are politicians, and they love to hear themselves talk.  More importantly, they love to hear themselves talk WELL.  As the old saying goes, in politics you need to have a big head and broad shoulders...and a loose-enough tongue.

The first presidential debate between Obama and McCain will be this Friday at 9pm EST.  The topic: Foreign Policy.  The importance: Huge! well, actually, it depends.  It could be huge, if somethings goes a certain way; it might end up being a non-factor and alter little more than Saturday morning's headlines.

For Obama this debate can propel him to the finish line.  Already with a slight lead in the national polls and (most importantly) in battleground state polls, Obama can use this debate as a slam dunk on McCain's pasty face (racial intonations intended).  If Obama can use, as the New York Times in a very interesting three-piece series analyzing the candidates' styles,  called his "facility with words, his wry detachment, his reasoning skills, his youthful cool", he could prickle McCain enough to make him snap.

Too bad the subject is foreign policy.

In a tricky twist of fate, the first topic to be debated, the first debate that could onset a snowball effect for either candidate deals with the very subject Obama has been doubted on the most and McCain presumptuously relishes.  

McCain is scrappy, deprecating, and often cutting in a way that can be both a strength and a potential rhetorical downfall.  He used this style best again Mitt Romney, the front runner by many accounts of the Republican primary.  He would make fun of, scandalize, and even lie about him to his face, all while smirking and winking.  McCain is not afraid to push in the rhetorical shiv.

So a cool, relaxed, and often winded Obama goes against smirking, mischievous McCain.  Who would win in a debate about Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, N. Korea, Iran, Russia, and our relation to all of the above?  It depends on who brings their best face and mouth forward.  If McCain is at ease throwing around anecdotes and little funny asides, while he disses and spits at Obama's face, it looks like McCain would win.  If Obama sticks to his talking points of equating McCain to Bush in terms of foreign policy, reminds everyone his many faux-pas toward Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and brushes off McCain's disses turning them into nasty misses, then Obama may light enough of a fire in Old Man Winter to let America see a nasty side of his many do not know of yet.

In other words, if Obama plays a charming, knowing Kennedy, he will make McCain look like a cranky, sweaty Nixon.

lhp

Where is Michelle Obama?

Few would believe that the woman dominating this election would not be either a Clinton or an Obama, but a Palin. Hillary Clinton is taking the activist college freshman angle on her support for Obama, limiting it to a pin and a funny bumper sticker on her car that says something like "Obama Said Knock You Out". She is, essentially, half-assing it. As far as she is concerned, she looked and played nice at the convention, quelling any storylines of intra-party feuds, and keeping her in good enough shape for the next election.

But as for Michelle, where did she go? Her appearance at the Democratic National Convention, The View, and her ever improving stump speech made her a force to be reckoned with. She is a woman with keen working class and feminine sensibilities like Hillary; a figure that inspires curiosity and likeability like her husband (and she is far prettier, lovelier, attractive..umm, sorry, I digress). But she is nowhere to be found.

She may be too ready for prime-time. Obama folks may think she is better off as a non-factor than as an x-factor. They rather play it safe and keep her away from galvanizing any side, including the opposing side, than to make her Eva to Barack's Peron, Hillary to Barack's Bubba.

If this is so, the Obama campaign is stepping into familiar marshy terrain. They are playing it too safe. Michelle Obama could be the Sarah Palin Sen. Joe Biden has failed to become. Yes, she could rile up the right-wing, but she will also fire up the rest of the electorate, and even Barack and Joe themselves. If there is anything Michelle certainly is, it is a strong, confident woman. And that is something that will fire up anyone for or against the very idea of one.

Sarah Palin is nothing more than a lighting rod. And that, in politics, has more pros than cons. That is what gave Hillary her die-hard loyal support, and what gave Bush his re-election. Playing it safe, and nice, and too friendly might do Barack in. He needs to roll up his sleeves (even more), trust his wife's instincts, kick Biden in the balls, and come out swinging.

Michelle Obama could be Barack's running mate, more than Joe has. Hey, it worked for Sarah with her First Dude, Todd Palin. Why not?

lhp

Obama's Email Hacked!

Just joshing.

lhp

After 08, Would They Get Re-elected? The Economy

Not to take any of the heat away from the 2008 election's kitchen, but as Nov. 4th looms, one uncertainty grows: Would either Obama or McCain get re-elected in 2012?

Headlines for the past week have summarized the dire situation that has simmered for years. A 'once-in-a-century [economic] crisis'; a 'fragile' situation in Iraq; an exponentially threatening healthcare emergency; a diminishing American presence and influence abroad; an uncertain relationship with Iran, North Korea, Russia (a member of Sarah Palin's PTA), and Pakistan; and a potentially gloomier scenario if a certain candidate *COUGHoldmanwinterCOUGH* gets elected.

Putting aside what might happen in November, a good question is what might happen in November...2012?

The incoming president will inherit a bundle of problems that would need not one, but a FDR-size four terms to at least assuage them. Either a 73 year-old or a 47 year-old commander-in-chief will have such a heavy workload of titanic implications that I would not be surprised that Obama, not McCain, suffered a mental breakdown.

First off, the overall economic picture is considered anything from shaky to disastrous, depending on who you ask--or 'strong', if you ask McCain before he backpedals.

As history has taught us, the president is not so much judged by what he does but by what happens during his tenure. Bill Clinton was not necessarily an economic genius, but he was smart enough to get outta the way and enjoy the praise afterwards. W. Bush was dumb enough to mess with things when they going awry, pushing them into flammamamable territory.

Either president will have a historic deficit, high rate of foreclosures and unemployment, and thuggish Chinese competition to deal with. Emphasis on DEAL, because they will be asked to do the seemingly impossible: reverse a disastrous 8 years of economic irresponsability, negligence, and overall poisoning. The context wont matter much, since the key question every election is: Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?

Being as objective as I can be, I have to give Obama a slightly better chance of coming out of his first term in better shape than McCain in terms economic performance of the country. For two reasons: McCain has voluntarily chained himself to the Bush tax cuts, ensuring the disaster of before will come to the fore four years from now. He IS Bush in terms of the economy.

The second reason is more imperical than psychological: Obama's economic plan has received greater praise and support by experts than McCain's 'disaster'. Coming out at least a little better than how he came in is enough to give Obama a 'good try' pat on the back by voters in 2012.

But, what about 2012 foreign policy....

lhp

Paint your Nov. 4th Scenario

If you are interested, here is mine.

lhp

Palin's Shine Begins to Wear Off

Call me Nostradamus. Well, not yet, but get ready to.

The Palin novety is done settling in the political arena, and after this fairytale was dissected, it became just another folk's tale.

Now Palin is seeing her number dip. Fast. Her favorability rating is dropping, her unfavorability rating is rising, and she has the smallest gap of all four men in the race.

She will rebound after the debate with Joe, no doubt. Even if she tanks, the McCain campaign will claim a victory for women, or torch Biden for bullying her and women around the world, or call her Joan of Arc with Tina Fey glasses. Either way, Joe just needs to not screw up too bad.

But in the long run, she will not have her shine to ride on. She may be what wins McCain this election, but she also may be on the wrong side of a landslide.

lhp

Greenspan: The US cannot survive McCain tax plan

What does he know?  He is only the former chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Read it.

lhp

Eve Ensler on Sarah Palin

Even Ensler, the playwright, performer, and feminist activist best know for "The Vagina Monologues", wrote the following on Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin.

This has not been edited or modified in any way.  It will also not be commented on.  It is worth to read it and make your mind up on it.  It is, indeed, powerful.

I am having Sarah Palin nightmares. I dreamt last night that she was a
member of a club where they rode snowmobiles and wore the claws of drowned
and starved polar bears around their necks. I have a particular thing for
Polar Bears. Maybe it's their snowy whiteness or their bigness or the fact
that they live in the arctic or that I have never seen one in person or
touched one. Maybe it is the fact that they live so comfortably on ice.
Whatever it is, I need the polar bears.

I don't like raging at women. I am a Feminist and have spent my life
trying to build community, help empower women and stop violence against
them. It is hard to write about Sarah Palin. This is why the Sarah Palin
choice was all the more insidious and cynical. The people who made this
choice count on the goodness and solidarity of Feminists.

But everything Sarah Palin believes in and practices is antithetical to
Feminism which for me is part of one story -- connected to saving the
earth, ending racism, empowering women, giving young girls options,
opening our minds, deepening tolerance, and ending violence and war.

I believe that the McCain/Palin ticket is one of the most dangerous
choices of my lifetime, and should this country chose those candidates the
fall-out may be so great, the destruction so vast in so many areas that
America may never recover. But what is equally disturbing is the impact
that duo would have on the rest of the world. Unfortunately, this is not a
joke. In my lifetime I have seen the clownish, the inept, the bizarre be
elected to the presidency with regularity. Sarah Palin does not believe in
evolution. I take this as a metaphor. In her world and the world of
Fundamentalists nothing changes or gets better or evolves. She does not
believe in global warming. The melting of the arctic, the storms that are
destroying our cities, the pollution and rise of cancers, are all part of
God's plan. She is fighting to take the polar bears off the endangered
species list. The earth, in Palin's view, is here to be taken and
plundered. The wolves and the bears are here to be shot and plundered. The
oil is here to be taken and plundered. Iraq is here to be taken and
plundered. As she said herself of the Iraqi war, "It was a task from God."
Sarah Palin does not believe in abortion. She does not believe women who
are raped and incested and ripped open against their will should have a
right to determine whether they have their rapist's baby or not.

She obviously does not believe in sex education or birth control. I
imagine her daughter was practicing abstinence and we know how many babies
that makes. Sarah Palin does not much believe in thinking. From what I
gather she has tried to ban books from the library, has a tendency to
dispense with people who think independently. She cannot tolerate an
environment of ambiguity and difference. This is a woman who could and
might very well be the next president of the United States. She would
govern one of the most diverse populations on the earth. Sarah believes in
guns. She has her own custom Austrian hunting rifle. She has been known to
kill 40 caribou at a clip. She has shot hundreds of wolves from the air.

Sarah believes in God. That is of course her right, her private right. But
when God and Guns come together in the public sector, when war is declared
in God's name, when the rights of women are denied in his name, that is
the end of separation of church and state and the undoing of everything
America has ever tried to be.

I write to my sisters. I write because I believe we hold this election in
our hands. This vote is a vote that will determine the future not just of
the U.S., but of the planet. It will determine whether we create policies
to save the earth or make it forever uninhabitable for humans. It will
determine whether we move towards dialogue and diplomacy in the world or
whether we escalate violence through invasion, undermining and attack. It
will determine whether we go for oil, strip mining, coal burning or invest
our money in alternatives that will free us from dependency and
destruction. It will determine if money gets spent on education and
healthcare or whether we build more and more methods of killing. It will
determine whether America is a free open tolerant society or a closed
place of fear, fundamentalism and aggression.

If the Polar Bears don't move you to go and do everything in your power to
get Obama elected then consider the chant that filled the hall after Palin
spoke at the RNC, "Drill Drill Drill." I think of teeth when I think of
drills. I think of rape. I think of destruction. I think of domination. I
think of military exercises that force mindless repetition, emptying the
brain of analysis, doubt, ambiguity or dissent. I think of pain.

Do we want a future of drilling? More holes in the ozone, in the floor of
the sea, more holes in our thinking, in the trust between nations and
peoples, more holes in the fabric of this precious thing we call life?

Eve Ensler

lhp

The Sarah Palin Factor

I understand Republicans now. Kinda. I am at odds with a cocky, charismatic, and stubborn woman. I have my Hillary Clinton in Sarah Palin.

I must admit, I didn't this hockey mom had it in her. She has shaken things up more than Biden every has, or will. She has galvanized the Right AND the Left. She has re-energized McCain, and put fire back in Obama's belly. She has made this election more about her, than what she stands for. So far.

As the real Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton, will prove, the aura of an unbeatable female force only works so far. Issues, past, and associations end up propping you up or eating you down.

Sarah Palin is riding a wave of popularity with (gasp!) women and (double gasp!) men. Polls are showing she is more popular with the men that with her sisterhood. What gives?

She is a novelty. She is experiencing what Obama has riden for the last 4 years: a new, shining promise within the party, a figure to guarantee a future beyond 2008 no matter who wins or loses. If McCain and Palin lose in November, she will be back. Oh yes, she will. As will Barack and Michelle. McCain, however, is riding his last horse to the promised land.

Sarah is supposedly shaking up the divides, and making women McCain McCrazy. According to everyone who owns a microphone, she is successfully courting Hillary voters, men, women, moose, Jesus, and even Malia and Sasha. Or so they say.

The Palin factor is an evanescent political phenomenon. She is big at the moment because McCain is so small. She cannot continue to be this gargantuan figure in the ticket because it aint her ticket. Don't be surprised if murmurs of a McCain/Palin & Bill/Hillary comparison start to arise. He might end up looking whipped if he lets her steal the show.

With the ludicrous Lipstickgate now garnering headlines (sign of a slow news day), the introduction of Sarah Palin is moving this campaign from the historic to the histerical. Soon enough, if Obama and Biden stay on task, and the media does its job, the Palin factor will loose the steam it is riding. Sarah Palin will be revealed to be a woman that shares few, if any, positions on important issues with other women, and as a blowhard, stubborn, enraging political figure with no place in the White House. I truly feel I have found my Republican Hillary Clinton.

lhp

Jon Stewart Vs. Palin's Crew

Because you should.

lhp

RNC: Really Nasty Caucasians

I tried to being objective.  I really did.  And after the first day, I kept my objective head and gave it a decent grade.  They delivered their message of service first and courage and all that good stuff.  As a sales pitch, they made me curious enough about the product to listen more.

Then the true angle of the Republican National Convention was revealed.  With Thompson.  With Giuliani.  With Palin.  With so much red meat, I had to run after a tofu burger to balance it all out.

The convention is soaked in anger, cynicism, and, to an extent, hate.  Rudolph Giuliani and Sarah Palin's speech summed it up.  They tore apart Obama's community service, threw out his experience as a state legislator and Senator, lied about his record, and were unable to offer details of McCain policy proposals.

She revealed herself as a puppet with few words to say on her behalf.  The Republicans are definitely happy with her performance.  But analyzing it objectively, she just preached to the choir.  She was a cheerleader, not a speaker.  Giuliani was the mascot.

The main purpose of Palin's speech was to introduce her and show off her VP credentials.  I am still waiting...

lhp

Palin's New Granddaughter: The Storm Swells

The GOP has always been proud of its family values.  Now it has a slightly larger family to share those values with.

In another turn in this soap-opera of an election year, McCain's freshly inked VP pick, Sarah Pallin, is having a granddaughter.  Yipee.  Oh, and her daughter is 17...yipee?

Out of wedlock, young, and the daughter of a staunch conservative, Bristol Palin (apparently the Palins are NASCAR fans) will bring in another dash of drama to a GOP convention that is slowly turning into a disaster greater than Gustav.

The hurricane is stealing the thunder (literally) from the convention, and, I believe, at a gut level is reminding what other instances the Republicans and a massive storm in New Orleans have occurred recently, and how they felt then.  

When we do or see something in conjunction with something else, we remember that something else everytime we do or see the same thing over again.  In Neuro-linguistic Programming (NLP) this is called 'anchoring'.  For example, if you point your finger when talking to someone about love, anytime you point your finger, that person will start to think of love and go from there.  Or, if you see a Republican party on the TV at the same time you hear about a hurricane in Louisiana, many will subconsciously go back to Katrina.  This may not happen, but an easy association could come about.

So what about this new granddaughter?  They are going to keep it they say (duh), and will support her daughter all the way through.  They will even volunteer to throw her a baby shower and register her at Target.  Do they have Target in Alaska?

McCain made a blunder when he picked Palin.  She is such a transparent choice, that he now has to make the case for her on top of making the case for himself and against Obama.  Biden does not need to sell himself; he is Biden and he has his support locked.

The Convention starts today for the Republicans, so expect a lot of flags, a lot of 'patriotism', and a lot of borderline offensive attacks on Obama.  Expect a lot of mud being slung around--and I am not talking about Hurricane Gustav.

lhp

McCain Speaks to Our Sexist Angels

Seriously, McCain, wtf?? The pick of Sarah Pallin, an unknown governor from a state that is as populated and complex to run as a local Wal-Mart, is both stupid and unbelievable. He not only defied common sense when picking a VP (someone with a resume that fills the holes in yours), but also political strategy.

Many, if not every single person with a political memory that spans more than a year, is calling this for what it is: sexist. His strategy appears to be that of pandering and opportunism. Picking a woman for being a woman is like telling females to buy cigarettes because they are in a pink box...oh wait, that has already been done. Pallin will have a hard time courting her sisterhood with a record that includes staunch pro-life stances and a life story that is more Barbie than Barbara Bush.

Pallin has less than two years of gubernatorial experience in Alaska. She was a council member and mayor for some years also. No, not mayor or council member of Juneau, but that of Wasilla, population OVER 6,000. Sarah Pallin, Experience You Can Count On.

Oh, and she also won a beauty pageant back in the day. Anyway...

McCain should have a hard time making his case for picking Pallin. She might be on the ticket to serve as a sprinkle of youth and charm in a campaign that lacks both by the bucket-full. But besides that, what does she bring? If McCain and Pallin can't answer these questions, they are bound to be asked how their ticket differs in experience and charm from Obama/Biden.

Pretty much, McCain might have made his case against Obama's persona defunct. His youth, little experience, and "celebrity" are the same for Pallin. Simple arithmetic, they cancel each other out. In addition, age in the McCain campaign comes back to play, but in a negative way. McCain will turn 72 this year, so that means he may become the oldest president to ever take the oath, with Pallin as her VP. What happens in McCain dies in office? Pallin becomes the president, and all bets are off. Can McCain make the case that the possibility of a Pallin presidency is not the same as a Obama presidency?

McCain played his cards very poorly and with a rush he shouldn't have taken (he only met once with Pallin during the vetting process, and that was this week). His pick is nothing more than pandering for female votes and a shot in his foot. The Obama campaign should not allow him to just walk it off. Get 'em Biden, get 'em!

lhp

Bill and Joe, Cheerleaders Extraordinaire

I ended up with mixed feelings on Tuesday night. Hillary's night. It definitely did feel like Hillary's night, but for the wrong reasons.

After her speech, which was a very well written and delivered piece of triangulated rhetoric, I felt happy but empty. I figured out why: She wrote it for herself. She did address the anger amongst the Angry Women of Hillary, and she did address the need to defeat McCain, but it was no less a campaign speech than she had given in New Hampshire 6 months ago, or in Ohio only a few months after that. She was still campaigning, but now for 2012 or 2016.

She never explicitly endorsed Obama, but just pinned him as the lesser of two evils, according to her. "Pleeeease dont vote for a Republican! Oh yeah, and Obama is a decent alternative, too...but don't feel obliged to vote for him if you would rather vote for me--if so, wait til 2012, because I will be back!" The speech was well-done, but the first 15 minutes sounded like another stump speech and the last 15 were a half-hearted endorsement of the Democrat, not specifically of Obama.

Then came Bill. If you were to tell me that Bill would be the Clinton that I felt was more committed to Obama I would have scoffed and mentioned the fact that the Clintons and Obamas are like the Gores and Clintons, playing nice but only when people are looking.

Bill gave a rousing speech that even made me remember his years with fondness and admiration. He raised great points ("They said I was inexperienced and too young in 1992...sound familiar?"), wrote a beautiful political speech ("The world is more impressed by the power of our example than by the example...of our power") that made many more inroads to a unified party than Hillary's. Who knows, maybe Bill will be the US ambassador to the UN under President Obama. After his speech, I would love that idea.

And finally, to wrap up a feisty and fiery Wednesday, Sen. Joe Biden had his turn. His son Beau was a revelation. I am sure many Democratic leaders looked upon Beau as a bright political star with vast nurturable potential. So far, the Convention has revealed a very strong pack of young, ambitious, and charismatic pols that will soon enough graduate to the national (presidential) stage and frighten the GOP, such as former VA Gov. Mark Warner, Jesse Jackson Jr., Michelle Obama, and Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer.

But back to Joe. He owned the lovable attack dog role. Presenting himself as a scrappy, hard-working Irish-Catholic, he blended likeability and fiery, direct talk that will help Obama tremendously. In fact, I believe Bill and Joe have made the case for Obama to undecided voters better than Obama himself has. Both Bill and Joe reminded the party of what a Democrat looked like, with a backbone and with a high emotional quotient. The important thing now is the man himself, and what he will do after an impressive set of cheerleaders.

Obama has a prime opportunity to help heal party wounds, cutout McCain and play up his potential and uniqueness for undecided voters to believe Obama is needed rather than preferable in this time in history.

Will he do it? Probably. But don't expect a bounce since McCain will surely steal the spotlight with a VP pick and his own Party party next week. What Obama can hope for is an undercurrent of momentum to help him crash McCain's time in the limelight. Obama has had trouble doing that so far.

lhp

DNC Day 1

A storyline for a typical viewer of the Democratic National Convention's first day might go like this:

"Alright, lets see what's on? American Idol? No, not today...damn.

Ok, lemme lookie...Hey, the democrats are celebrating something! Oh yeah, they have their convention going.

Honey! Come check out Ted Kennedy, he is still alive and kicking!...Hmm, who is Sen. Mcclaskill...McClaskil? Macasco??...

Booooring....Boooring...Some dudes talking...boooring.

I didn't know Obama was getting Republicans on his side...

Hey honey, its Obama's wife, that mean lady, Michelle...

I didn't know she grew up in Chicago...

Hey, she actually is a pretty good speaker, turn up the volume...

Yeah! We do need someone who doesn't just do what their party does...Shhh, Michelle is talking...

Woohoo!! Michele for president!!!...

Haha! Did you hear that, Barack said "You want a president that is persistent" since he kept asking Michelle out...

Aww, those kids are cute....

Michelle is pretty hot *slap* Ah! I mean in a White House kinda way, I still love you , honey"

Or something like that.

Ted Kennedy's message was pretty much: Look, I am dying here and I got more guts and fire that half of those politicians out there, so what is your excuse to not go all out for Barack?!

He riled the Democrats and showed them how it is done, with passion and confidence that voters will like you even if you have been demonized by the Republicans.

If Ted Kennedy was the fire, then Michelle Obama was the soul of the night. She reintroduced herself as a woman who has had a journey as American and authentic as Hillary's or anyone else. She made herself accessible and likeable as a woman, as a mother, and, most importantly that night, as the wife to a possible president. She also helped make Barack human again, by tying him to her experience.

Tonight might be one of the trickiest nights of the convention. Hillary will speak, and her supporters will roar. If anything goes awry, it is her head and her future at stake. To make tonight a greater success than last night (too many zzzzs in between Kennedy and Obama), the heat needs to be turned up on McCain, Bush, and the message needs to stay clear and direct.

As David Brooks pointed out:

So as I’m trying to measure the effectiveness of this convention, I’ll be jotting down a little minus mark every time I hear a theme that muddies that image. I’ll jot down a minus every time I hear the old class conflict, and the old culture war themes. I’ll jot down a minus when I see the old Bush obsession rearing its head, which is not part of his natural persona. I’ll write a demerit every time I hear the rich played off against the poor, undercutting Obama’s One America dream.

I’ll put a plus down every time a speaker says that McCain is a good man who happens to be out of step with the times. I’ll put a plus down every time a speaker says that a multipolar world demands a softer international touch. I’ll put a plus down when a speaker says the old free market policies worked fine in the 20th century, but no longer seem to be working today. These are arguments that reinforce Obama’s identity as a 21st-century man.

Obama is losing steam, but he can regain it by being unafraid to play up his uniqueness and passion. If they go soft, the Democrats will go home.

lhp

Nailed IT!

lhp

New McCain Ad Attacks Obama AND Clinton

Check this new political ad by Sen. McCain that came out just after Biden was named VP:

A few things:

• The ad is meant to aggravate the Obama/Clinton & Clinton supporters conflict
• The ad is meant to play on the theme that Obama can't take the heat, and is too raw and too much of a novice to be president
• The ad is supposed to tell Hillary supporters: Get mad! Vote for me to teach him a lesson!

What it DOES do:

• It forces Hillary to be a greater advocate of Obama.  She might have been lukewarm in her support for Obama before, but if she lets this slide and says nothing, she loses a lot.  Her supporters will still be behind her since they believe, deep in their hearts, that what this ad claim is true, but she will lose respect of the rest of the Democratic party and will put her political future in jeopardy--NY will not take kind of a back-stabber and implicit McCain supporter
• It may aggravate Hillary supporters, but against MCCAIN.  He is portraying them as angry, irrational animals that are vengeful and short-sighted.  They are not.  And if they feel uneasy about this ad, they will soon know why: McCain thinks they are dumb enough to take the bait.
• McCain is now playing a new style of ball he can't win.  If he is going to introduce character witnesses to the campaign, then he cannot win that battle of reputation.  Stories about McCain's readiness, temper, political opportunism, and character flaws abound...and that is just from his GOP colleagues!  If we wants to play ball, Obama has a lot of ammo for this sort of ball.

lhp