After 08, Would They Get Re-elected? The Economy

Not to take any of the heat away from the 2008 election's kitchen, but as Nov. 4th looms, one uncertainty grows: Would either Obama or McCain get re-elected in 2012?

Headlines for the past week have summarized the dire situation that has simmered for years. A 'once-in-a-century [economic] crisis'; a 'fragile' situation in Iraq; an exponentially threatening healthcare emergency; a diminishing American presence and influence abroad; an uncertain relationship with Iran, North Korea, Russia (a member of Sarah Palin's PTA), and Pakistan; and a potentially gloomier scenario if a certain candidate *COUGHoldmanwinterCOUGH* gets elected.

Putting aside what might happen in November, a good question is what might happen in November...2012?

The incoming president will inherit a bundle of problems that would need not one, but a FDR-size four terms to at least assuage them. Either a 73 year-old or a 47 year-old commander-in-chief will have such a heavy workload of titanic implications that I would not be surprised that Obama, not McCain, suffered a mental breakdown.

First off, the overall economic picture is considered anything from shaky to disastrous, depending on who you ask--or 'strong', if you ask McCain before he backpedals.

As history has taught us, the president is not so much judged by what he does but by what happens during his tenure. Bill Clinton was not necessarily an economic genius, but he was smart enough to get outta the way and enjoy the praise afterwards. W. Bush was dumb enough to mess with things when they going awry, pushing them into flammamamable territory.

Either president will have a historic deficit, high rate of foreclosures and unemployment, and thuggish Chinese competition to deal with. Emphasis on DEAL, because they will be asked to do the seemingly impossible: reverse a disastrous 8 years of economic irresponsability, negligence, and overall poisoning. The context wont matter much, since the key question every election is: Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?

Being as objective as I can be, I have to give Obama a slightly better chance of coming out of his first term in better shape than McCain in terms economic performance of the country. For two reasons: McCain has voluntarily chained himself to the Bush tax cuts, ensuring the disaster of before will come to the fore four years from now. He IS Bush in terms of the economy.

The second reason is more imperical than psychological: Obama's economic plan has received greater praise and support by experts than McCain's 'disaster'. Coming out at least a little better than how he came in is enough to give Obama a 'good try' pat on the back by voters in 2012.

But, what about 2012 foreign policy....

lhp