Monday, October 27, 2008

McCain's Obit Too Soon?


When you have neo-nazis trying to kill you, you know you are causing a stir. A disrupted Obama assassination attempt is just another drop in the flood of assumptions that he will win come November 4th.

Will he? I hope so--but I cannot say with certainty. Polling shows him ahead in almost all swing states, a handful of previously certified Red states, and nationwide by a comfortable (and sometimes surprisingly wide) margin. McCain has no more than a couple chances to turn this thing around, but even then he will be trying to stop a hurricane with some heavy puffing. Obama is poised to become the next president of the United States--maybe.

An Obama victory is what pollsters and pundits assumed many times over during the primaries, only to be slapped back by Hillary's never (neeeeeever) say die attitude. The margin of victory in most states was either slimmer than expected, suprisingly off, or wrong all over in favor of Hillary. Polling this year has not been consistently proven.

This is not to take back from Obama's pristine campaign. Try to think of a handful of mismanagements, gaffes, or bone-headed decisions made by his campaign. Hard to do so. Try to do the same with McCain, and you have just a handful coming from Palin in the last month.

The possibility that McCain is bound to lose in a landslide is indeed a possibility. It is even a probablitiy. But McCain is of the Hillary ilk. He fights his best when cornered, when he has nothing else to fight for. Do not be surprised if he manages to land a few roundhouse kicks in the next 8 days.

An Obama presidency is already being taken as a given, and analyzed before it even begins. This celebrity adoration has followed Obama for the last 4 years, but it has never truly phased him. This is one of the reasons the celebrity attack line didn't stick; he might know he is a celebrity, but he is able to sober-up his message enough to bore you to death and make those fickle independents think he is dull enough to be good.

McCain has never been able to brush off many of his obstacles. He is still an untrusted figure within his party, and not because of his maverickness, but because of his persona. He has never truly convinced his followers that he is the best man for the job--proof being that he only excited his campaign after picking a right-wing hockey mom . He has even caused some of the most fervent GOP supporters to beg him to throw a hail-mary, not trusting his campaign's strategies. McCain has put himself in a position George Bush never did: he has everyone, including his own party, doubting his competence as president.

Is it too early to take McCain out of this race? No. Is he likely to win? No. Does this mean Obama will lose? Doesn't matter. McCain will not soon disappear.

lhp

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