Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Key Things to Look For Tonight


It's election day. I know I am not the only one with their stomach tied three knots and a half. But I am sane enough (at the moment) to give my take on what are some of the keys things to look out for as the results roll in tonight. So lets look at the trees, AND the forest:
  • Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana--oh my!: These may be the earliest predictors of what type of election this will be: a landslide, a cliff-hanger, or a reasonable rout. If Obama wins Virginia, expect at the very least, at reasonable spanking of McCain; this goes the same if he manages to win Indiana. If he wins North Carolina, then expect a landslide of at least 8 pts in the popular vote, and 100 electoral votes, against McCain. However, if Obama loses all three, then we may be in for the long-haul.
  • State of Brotherly Love: McCain is betting the farm on this state...that and Sarah Palin's wardrobe. If he wins PA, his campaign will feel reinvigorated, and he will be as spry as a spring chicken.
  • Men, Men, Men: How will Obama do with the male vote? Especially, white men? A big lead means a major shift in electoral demographics that have been in place since LBJ.
  • Turnout: So much is hanging on how many first-time, young, African-American and independent voters come out to vote. All of these groups are typically Obama supporters, so a large turnout from them means a lot of support for Obama. In Indiana, for example, Lake County, where the predominantly African-American city of Gary is located, is still very within Obama's reach if that county votes in high numbers.
  • What about a landslide? A popular vote and an electoral vote landslide is a possibility for Obama. If these happens, this will be the first time since Ronald Reagan in 1980 that a such a landslide has occurred, without an incumbent president in the race.
Stay tuned. I sure will.

lhp

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