Thursday, October 30, 2008

Who Will Win Which States?



With less than a week away from the election, and the weekend being the blackhole that it is, this is a prime time to make your election bets. Unless Obama slaps a baby on television, or McCain cures cancer over the weekend, the dynamics of the election will be unchanged from now until Nov. 4th. So lets get on to predicticatin'.

  • The West Coast will be all Obama's. The East Coast as south as Virginia will be all Obama.
    I don't see North Carolina going for Obama unless a higher than expected young voter turnout is seen--but it would have to be incredibly high.
  • Florida, much to the chagrin of Obama, Biden, and the Clinton's hardwork, will be McCain's. The argument there has rested on the hands of older jewish voters and Cubans. I don't see those two groups picking Obama over McCain at this time, but it will be closer than most think.
  • Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada will all go to Obama, making tremendous inroads into Red territory. Virginia was quickly seen as a potential newcomer to the Democratic column soon after Obama did so well in its exurbs and high-tech ally, but these three Red states have been inching toward Obama throughout the summer, and now remain solidly on his side.
  • Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the working-class, manufacturing belt, will all go to Obama. Michigan and Ohio will probably show the widest margin of victory, with Pennsylvania being closer than expected due to Murtha's dumbass remarks and McCain's persistent presence there.
  • Minnesotta will go to McCain, but only barely, and because of the presence his Convention, and the unveiling of the Palin pitbull that stills linger in the cold, pragmatic air.
  • Iowa will turn Blue, and Missouri will be close enough to be considered a gimme-state come 2012.
  • Indiana will go to McCain, and by wider margins than in other states in the region.
In the end, I believe Obama will win the popular vote, around 56% of it, and claim 301 electoral votes to McCain's 237. If a state like Florida, or Indiana tips toward the Obama column, this will be a tremendous landslide. If it ends up coming out as I predict, Obama will have a mandate for a first term president unheard of since Ronald Reagan in 1980. No wonder Obama has admiration for Reagan transformative presence in history.

lhp

Monday, October 27, 2008

We Can Still Win This, By Daryl Cagle


lhp

McCain's Obit Too Soon?


When you have neo-nazis trying to kill you, you know you are causing a stir. A disrupted Obama assassination attempt is just another drop in the flood of assumptions that he will win come November 4th.

Will he? I hope so--but I cannot say with certainty. Polling shows him ahead in almost all swing states, a handful of previously certified Red states, and nationwide by a comfortable (and sometimes surprisingly wide) margin. McCain has no more than a couple chances to turn this thing around, but even then he will be trying to stop a hurricane with some heavy puffing. Obama is poised to become the next president of the United States--maybe.

An Obama victory is what pollsters and pundits assumed many times over during the primaries, only to be slapped back by Hillary's never (neeeeeever) say die attitude. The margin of victory in most states was either slimmer than expected, suprisingly off, or wrong all over in favor of Hillary. Polling this year has not been consistently proven.

This is not to take back from Obama's pristine campaign. Try to think of a handful of mismanagements, gaffes, or bone-headed decisions made by his campaign. Hard to do so. Try to do the same with McCain, and you have just a handful coming from Palin in the last month.

The possibility that McCain is bound to lose in a landslide is indeed a possibility. It is even a probablitiy. But McCain is of the Hillary ilk. He fights his best when cornered, when he has nothing else to fight for. Do not be surprised if he manages to land a few roundhouse kicks in the next 8 days.

An Obama presidency is already being taken as a given, and analyzed before it even begins. This celebrity adoration has followed Obama for the last 4 years, but it has never truly phased him. This is one of the reasons the celebrity attack line didn't stick; he might know he is a celebrity, but he is able to sober-up his message enough to bore you to death and make those fickle independents think he is dull enough to be good.

McCain has never been able to brush off many of his obstacles. He is still an untrusted figure within his party, and not because of his maverickness, but because of his persona. He has never truly convinced his followers that he is the best man for the job--proof being that he only excited his campaign after picking a right-wing hockey mom . He has even caused some of the most fervent GOP supporters to beg him to throw a hail-mary, not trusting his campaign's strategies. McCain has put himself in a position George Bush never did: he has everyone, including his own party, doubting his competence as president.

Is it too early to take McCain out of this race? No. Is he likely to win? No. Does this mean Obama will lose? Doesn't matter. McCain will not soon disappear.

lhp

Monday, October 20, 2008

Latin America Dismissed


It is easy to forget anything that isn't Obama, McCain, Palin, Bush, Afghanistan or economy-related. The focus has been kept on the most pressing, immediate storylines and threats. However, this monomania has put us in binds before (Iraq, dismissing Aghanistan; trade deficit and unemployment, looking away from the mortgage debacle; Saddam over Osama; and Palin over every other possible option). In the case of foreign policy, the inability of our President and national conversation to multi-task efficiently between equally important topics has left us jumping from one to the other, leaving behind a pile of unaccomplished missions and torn alliances.

This could soon be the case with Latin America. As far back as the Monroe Doctrine, the United States has treated Latin America like its little brother, ready to be taught and tussled with when we deemed it necessary. "Our backyard" has a long history of American interference, for the better (the 1994 bailout of Mexico amidst a financial crisis) or for the worse (the 1954 coup of Guatemala's Jacobo Arbenz because of the financial interests of United Fruit and our government officials' stake in the company). Like the bruised little brother, Latin America has gotten used to the heavy hand of American surveillance.

These days, it looks like it needs it. The complexities of Latin American continue to grow, as do its conflicts and turbulence. In Mexico, drug wars are pitting narco-dealers against cops, cops against the military, and civilians against the government. The bloody headlines involve the latest "ajuste de cuentas" (settling debts between drug cartels) on a daily basis. In Venezuela, Hugo Chavez rules with half of the country against him, and half of the country in devotion to him. The rise in oil prices has given him unprecented power, and he is wielding that power to tarnish the American image and begin to build an Anti-American coalition of Latin American nations. In Colombia, President Alvaro Uribe is consistently being linked to far-right paramilitaries that are entrenched in a violent war with far-left revolutionaries (the FARC), jeopardizing his legitimacy to rule and killing innocent civilians in the meanwhile. Across the region, the recent financial meltdown has made things worse, laying off millions, and leaving a part of the world that has disliked George Bush's patronizing presence from the moment he set foot on their land with the most bitter of after tastes.

The American government, however, has decided to practice a hands-off approach for the first time in a long time. It has mostly stayed out of the way of Latin American trainwrecks, and only decides to intervene when its own honor (barking back at Chavez) is at stake.

This will bite them soon enough.

The other half of America may not be at the same level of turmoil as the Middle East or West Africa, but it is still our neighbor. The repercussions of an ambivalence toward their tumultous reality will be felt much quicker than coming from anywhere else. Our decision to take a quick fix approach to the Mexican economy's troubles in the 60's by introducing the 'braceros' program did very little to help Mexico, and instead was partly to blame for the increasing stream of undocumented workers that have come to the US ever since. Our ambivalence toward Argentina's financial mismanagement led to a crisis they are barely getting out of, one that many Argentinians feel is as much the US's fault as their own government's. These are only a few examples of what American monomania has produced. The inability to look at issues in a more comprehensive manner has made our future that much more vulnerable.

America has many disgruntled customers, some of which have threatened the security of the country. Latin America is not one of those. But the constant brush off they have put up with over the last 8-10 years has made them suspicious of America, the big brother. Little brother is tired of being pushed around and paid attention to only when big brother has no one else with who to yell at. Soon enough, little brother will grow and start fighting back.

lhp

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Obama Surges with 14-point lead


The newest CBS poll:
Obama holds a more than 20-point edge when it comes to understanding voters' needs and problems, with 64 percent saying Obama does and 43 percent saying McCain does. 

The Republican nominee does hold a clear advantage on being seen as prepared to be president, as he has throughout the campaign. That measure does not appear to be boosting his support, however, perhaps because while 64 percent say McCain is prepared for the job, more than half say Obama is as well.
According to the poll, the lead has surged because of the massive swing of independent voters moving into Obama's column.  The latest set of attacks by the McCain/Palin beast has produced a nasty after taste in undecided voters' mouths.

McCain might come off two ways tomorrow at the debate in spite of this new set of news.  He may either come off as a fiery lasher with nothing left to lose, or as a defeated old pol with nowhere left to go.  I cannot see a scenario where McCain would dominate the debate with an eloquent, swift rhetorical victory.  He just doesn't have that in him at this point, especially it being on the economy.

To Obama, I say, be cautious of the cornered beast.

lhp


Saturday, October 11, 2008

Hanging Up The Future


By definition, a conservative is a reactionary, a person that harkens back rather than embrace forth.  Turning back to look at history is necessary, but when it is used as the only guide for ideology, policy, and personality, it creates, as Marx called it, a "nightmare on the brains of the living." 

America is a young nation, by comparative standards.  As a young political entity it is still maturing.  Looking back to its history is looking at immaturity, youthful recklessness, and mistakes we have (overall) tried to learn from.  Some still linger, and they are not static.  They transform, they adapt.  Such as racism.

McCain and Palin have done what many Obama supporters feared once Obama declared his candidacy: The election will be a referendum on our historical racial struggles.  If he loses or, God forbid, he wins but is denied the office by a bullet, it would be another nail in the coffin, further proof that all our so-called success in race relations has been a farce.  Recent events have hinted to the unsettling truth that racism in America has not disappeared but transformed into a creeping beast.  Events such as Katrina, Jenna 6, xenophobia against the predominantly Latino immigrants, post 9/11 Arab fear, and the unnerving racial tinge of the Clinton's attacks that turned off the African-Community, a stalwart Clinton block, are proof we still have ways to go.

The Senator from Arizona and The Governor from Alaska have created a new beast at their rallies and in their rhetoric.  They have let loose a dog that they never really understood, and much less controlled.  "Kill Him!", "Terrorist!", "Off with his head!", "Traitor!", are now the battle cries from supporters that shape their rallies.  Their continued attacks on Obama's "terrorist" associations, their continued insinuation that Obama is not a "proud American" (maybe not an American at all), their furious attempt to make Obama a man shaped by his tacit, barely existent associations with former enemies of the state, are not only disgraceful, they are murderous.

Obama is at a point not many thought he would be less than a month away from Election Day.  He is leading the polls against a decorated war hero and a engrossing female politician nationally and in critical swing states.  He is extending his lead as each day goes by.  Save a disastrous gaffe or a momentous swing in McCain's direction, he is a step away from the White House.  This is what makes things scarier.  McCain, Palin, and all those who love their cause or fear Obama's person are now in a corner.  As Lao Tzu noted, "Indeed be fearful of the enemy who is cornered with no way out".

Palin transformation into an incendiary figure is yet another surprise in this dramatic election.  Palin has become The Joker of this political season, lending a cheery, innocent facade to a mean-spirited, hateful interior.  If Palin is doing all this to prepare for her own bid in 2012, she is doing a masterful job.  Her support has grown from the sparsely populated state of Alaska to a coast-to-coast fanbase that would make Reagan proud.  However, her base is predominantly is made up of the worst kind of conservative: the scorned reactionary.  They have been wronged, either by the government, minorities, or even McCain-type of politicians, and now they want a take-over.  Palin is helming a movement much like Obama is, but hers is looking for regress, not progress; her movement is looking to go upstream, back through history, not to embrace the future.  

Part of that history includes some shameful moments.  Much of that shame is being recycled this year and thrown against Obama.  McCain and Palin are indeed true conservatives, but only in the fact they resent the future.  With cries from their riled up supporters to kill "that one", one cannot help but fear they may not be bluffing.  They might end up being successful in hanging up the future.  

lhp


Monday, October 06, 2008

Sarah Palin's Troopergate Intesifies


The AP reports:

ANCHORAGE (AP) — Seven Alaska state employees have reversed course and agreed to testify in an abuse-of-power investigation against Gov. Sarah Palin.

Ms. Palin, the Republican nominee for vice president, is the focus of a legislative inquiry into whether she abused her office by firing the public safety commissioner, Walt Monegan. Mr. Monegan says he was dismissed because he would not fire the governor’s former brother-in-law.

Lawmakers subpoenaed seven state employees to testify in the inquiry, but they challenged those subpoenas. A judge rejected that challenge last week. Because of that ruling, the Alaska attorney general, Talis Colberg, says, the employees have decided to testify.

There has been talk that this case may be decided before election day. This could end up tipping things over.

lhp

Friday, October 03, 2008

The VP Debate Verdict: But She's So Adorable!


Two things could be ascertained about the characters involved in last night's debate:
  • Sarah Palin's got IT. Not sure what IT is, or what IT means, but IT annoys the hell out of me...but I can see how IT appeals to middle-America voters. IT is all about "you betchas" and adorable pronounciations of "washington" and "alaska". IT is all about connecting with your inner-hockey mom (because that is such a popular sport in the mainland), and IT is all about being fiesty and cutesy at the same time.
  • Biden is good. Damn good. He even surprised me. He was possibly the best at constructing an argument attractive to the undecided voter out of the two. His grasp of the facts, his succinct arguments, and clear debating style made him stand out and turn this into a best-case scenario. He was calm, and even a little sentimental. I believe, he had a better performance than Obama did last Friday.
Now, if you need to hear these two points in different ways from an orgy of commentary, please, be my guest:
  • NYTimes: Palin did very well, but not well enough to help McCain keep this ship afloat.
  • WSJ: Palin held her own; Biden was aggressive in attacking McCain, not Palin.
  • Washington Post: Debate will help Palin for now, but her vagueness raises questions.
  • AP: Palin's low expectations helped Palin. Biden's strong performance kept momentum on Obama's side.
lhp