Evan Bayh, Too Much Risk, Too Litte Payoff?

The long days of summer are ending quickly. What was improbable in Spring, is a reality going into the fall. Not only has Mr. Obama become a giant-slayer by bringing down the mighty Clinton machine, but he is also barely leading McCain, a candidate that would lose a race against himself. Both of these scenarios were once considered more a fable than a fact, but here we are, in the last days of summer, with a dead-heat, and a contentious environment.

While there are many theories why Obama is only barely leading a McCain campaign that stumbles and mumbles and looks in lockstep with the unlikeable president (his arrogance, his inexperience...his race), the focus now is on the conventions. More immediately, the focus on the VPs at the conventions. McCain's list is still loosey-goosey, with Gov. of Louisiana Bobby Jindal, Mitt Romney, and former PA Gov. Tom Ridge at the head of the pack. But with Obama, only one is getting a fair amount of coverage as of late.

Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana is a political neighbor of Obama's Illinois. Both have hung out frequently lately, and both share characteristics that make them a dreamy tandem (youth, charisma, hollywood looks, and oratorical skills). What they don't share is what might make this duo a less competitive one.

Back in 2002, Sen. Bayh was on the wrong side of things, in respect to Obama's stance on the war. He publicly supported the war, albeit reluctantly, and followed through with his support until lately. His support for the Iraq War would not be so great if he had run in 2004, or even if he was John Kerry's running mate, who also voted in favor of the war. But in 2008, in a campaign that is more and more a referendum on the past 8 years, Sen. Bayh may be a huge liability for Obama, the candidate who said No to the war from the beginning and who is betting his chips of becoming the candidate of change.

There are probably a few reasons why Bayh looks so damn tasty as a VP choice. He is adored in Indiana, coming from a lineage of Indiana politicians (his father was a loved Senator and presidentia candidate in 1976), and filling his own resume with extensive executive experience as two-time Governor of Indiana and serving in his second term as Senator of the same state. His roots are deep; deep enough to make this Republican stalwart state a competitive one. His previous support for Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign might assuage the angry Clinton supporters a bit.

Or maybe not.

As we learned in 2004, the electorate is not stupid. It knows what a VP means. And power is not associated with it, not immediately. A VP pick is not as influential as many believe. In 2004, casanova Edwards, the charming, sexy southerner did not help Kerry get ONE southern state...NOT ONE. Not even his home state of South Carolina was competitive. That is because people know the VP isn't important now, but way later, and way later is not important right now.

If Obama picks Bayh, he will have to weigh the risks. A careful campaign of emphasis and de-emphasis on the Indianan Senator's record will be needed. Emphasize the long resume; de-emphasize the war votes. Emphasize his midwesterness; de-emphasize his moderate-conservative votes. Obama will need to calibrate an Evan Bayh VP nomination as much as he calibrated his own.

lhp