Elections are no different from other grand shows of spectacle. The Super Bowl, the Olympics, the new Batman movie, all of these are events that come with their own expectations and expected consequences. Being so grand and anticipated they are often compared to other great events that have past. Will the Giants be like the Joe Namath Jets and upset the seemingly invincible Patriots? Will Phelps be our era’s Spitz? Will the new Batman be a successful superhero sequel like Spiderman 2, or will it crash on top of its viral marketing scheme like Snakes On A Plane? Questions, comparisons, anticipations, this is what makes stuff worth talking about.
How will 2008 measure up? I see a few possible comparisons of what is still a nascent election season.
It could end up becoming an election decided by each party’s base, just like 2004 pitted Kerry’s angry liberals against Bush’s angry evangelicals.
It could become an election decided between two progressively similar candidates, moving each to the center as the campaign goes on until voters are not sure who is who or what makes them different, as was the case in 2000.
It could be an election lost by a splintered conservative base, thereby handing the presidency to the Democrats, similar to Bill Clinton’s 1992 victory.
Or it could become a historic election with historic implications, won by a photogenic, charming Senator over an older man considered angry, rough around the edges, and just untrustworthy because of the company he kept, like it was in 1968 between JFK and Nixon.
Which will it be? I will explore each scenario in greater depth in later posts, but for now, what election year does this remind you of? See any parallels with other elections?
lhp
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